After a stinging 0-3 at Selhurst Park, Fiorentina are looking for an almost impossible "comeback" on Artemio Franchi. "Viola" has major staff problems, missing Dodô (suspended), as well as the injured Moise Kean and Tariq Lamptey. Their morale is only boosted by the recent victory against Lazio, but the defense remains vulnerable to quick transitions. Crystal Palace is going through a historic season, being the favorite for the trophy. Oliver Glasner will bet on pragmatism, taking advantage of the form of Jean-Philippe Mateta and the huge spaces left by the Italians. Although Fiorentina will push for honor, the English defensive discipline and their efficiency on the counterattack will extinguish any hope of the hosts, securing an emotionless qualification to the semi-finals.

After their 0-2 defeat in Germany, Strasbourg are forced to risk everything at the Stade de la Meinau. The French have a remarkable offensive force at home, but Mainz, under Urs Fischer, have become a "tough nut", with an iron defense that has allowed few goals in 2026. Mainz will adopt a strategy of conservation, relying on the pragmatism typical of German teams. Strasbourg will dominate possession and put pressure through Martial Godo, but the tactical discipline of the visitors will limit the spaces. Although the hosts can achieve a pride victory, the advantage of the round is too great to be squandered by a team as balanced as Mainz.

After that stinging 0-3 in the round, AEK has an impossible mission in Athens. The Greeks are forced to attack massively, but their history against Spanish teams (16 matches without a win) is discouraging. The absence of the suspended Luka Jović drastically reduces the home team's striking power in the opponent's box. Rayo Vallecano, making their European debut, will rely on a compact defensive block and the quick counterattacks of Isi Palazón. Although the Madrid team is coming off a domestic setback, the comfortable advantage allows them to manage the pace. AEK can win the match thanks to the enthusiasm of the fans, but Rayo's tactical discipline will prevent a historic score reversal.

After a resounding 3-1 victory in Italy, Unai Emery, the “magician” of European cups, will impose a rigorous control in Birmingham. Aston Villa are in an ideal position, benefiting from the form of Ollie Watkins and the return of Emi Martínez. Although Bologna are a disciplined team, the need to attack furiously will leave their flanks vulnerable to the speed of the hosts. The superior experience of the hosts in managing two legs and the pressure at Villa Park will be too much for the Italians. Bologna will try to save their honor, but the tactical balance imposed by Emery will close the game as soon as qualification is certain. It is a duel where English pragmatism will triumph again.

After the 1-1 draw in Portugal, Forest return to the City Ground, where they have a psychological advantage after that 2-0 against the Lusitanians in the league phase. However, the "Forests" suffer at home in 2026, having only one victory in the last 11 games. Porto comes with high morale, being the leader in Portugal, but the absence of Martim Fernandes and the poor record in the travels in England (zero wins in the last five EL duels) are alarm signals. I expect a balanced duel, decided by the pragmatism of the guests or the energy of the English stands. I bet on a closed match, decided by tactical details.

After the 1-1 draw in Portugal, Betis starts with the first chance in Seville, supported by the crucial return of Isco to the squad. The "Verderones" are formidable at home in Europe, but the pragmatism of Braga, capable of lethal counterattacks through Ricardo Horta, will make this return extremely tense and tactically balanced. I am counting on Pellegrini's experience in managing critical moments. Betis will dominate possession in the middle of the field, but the Lusitanian defense will be difficult to break down. However, the superior individual quality of the Spaniards in the last 20 meters will tip the balance, securing qualification for the semi-finals by the limit, in a match marked by defensive caution on both sides.

Peterborough (16th) have one of the best attacking options outside the top 12 (60 goals), while Port Vale (23rd) have the weakest attack in League One, scoring just 30 times in 40 games. Recent history is abysmal: Peterborough have won their last seven head-to-head matches, keeping five clean sheets. While the hosts are not in their best form, the visitors' defensive vulnerability and low morale (15 points from salvation) make a Posh victory the only logical outcome for a disciplined bettor.

Leader Bromley host Cambridge United (3rd) in a real "promotion derby". The hosts are formidable at home, being the only unbeaten team at home this season in League Two (13W-8L). Although they come after a failure at MK Dons, the motivation to secure automatic promotion is huge. Cambridge is in high spirits after that 4-0 with Notts County, but they are suffering away from home in London (6 matches without a win). The absence of starting goalkeeper Jake Eastwood (suspended) could be decisive. I expect a balanced duel, where invincibility at Copperjax Stadium will be the determining factor.

After that painful 0-3 in the first leg, Celta Vigo approaches the second leg of the Europa League quarter-finals in a crisis of form, coming after an identical failure in the championship. The Spaniards will force the offense on Balaídos, but the lack of defensive balance makes them vulnerable. Freiburg is in excellent form, demonstrating German pragmatism and lethal efficiency on the counterattack. With a comfortable advantage, Schuster's team will manage the pace, waiting for the hosts to make mistakes. Celta can win the match, but qualification seems sealed by the superior tactical discipline of the guests.

After that emphatic 3-0 win over Shakhtar in the first leg, today’s second leg is an all-or-nothing affair for the Dutch. AZ Alkmaar are a force on their home turf, coming off seven consecutive wins at AFAS Stadion, but their massive deficit forces them to play a risky defensive game.Shakhtar are masters at managing their advantage with lightning-fast counterattacks, exploiting the spaces left by the hosts’ advanced pressing. I expect AZ to dominate possession and score, but their vulnerable defence will cave in under the pressure of the Ukrainian transitions. This is an “over 2.5 goals” match, where the Miners’ European experience will seal qualification, even if AZ wins by a narrow margin or gets a spectacular draw.