The market is heavily biased by Santa Clara's low goal total (0.67/game), ignoring that they actually find the net in 67% of their away fixtures. With an away xG of 1.25, their process is far better than their output. Braga’s defense is not watertight (conceding in 67% of home games), making the price of 2.25 a mathematical error by the books. We bet on the regression of Santa Clara's finishing to the mean.

Genoa's unbeaten streak (W3-D2, 11 pts from last 5) contradicts their 15th-place standing—Malinovskyi's penalty conversion and Norton-Cuffy's late-game clutch goals show clinical execution. Market prices them at 20% (4.20 odds) but recent form + home Luigi Ferraris resilience + Inter's mid-week Liverpool fatigue (48 hours prior) = miscalculation. Inter unbeaten away (4W-2L) but not invincible; Genoa's compact 3-5-2 presses high and creates transition threats.